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Mesoscale Discussion 1631 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT FRI AUG 03 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...NH...WRN/SRN ME
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 031608Z - 031745Z
TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY BY THE
17-18Z TIME FRAME.
IN THE WAKE OF STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS...LIKELY TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE HOULTON/CARIBOU AREAS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY/SHORTLY AFTER
17Z...AND...STILL AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH STRONG HEATING. LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INHIBITION REMAINS...BUT WITH
ADDITIONAL INSOLATION...CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGLIGIBLE BY
18/19Z ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO WESTERN MAINE. FORCING/INSTABILITY
COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTER OR
LINE IN WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. AND...THE
MOST VIGOROUS STORMS PROBABLY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...IN ADDITION TO STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS.
FARTHER UPSTREAM...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT TO THE
LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ACROSS PARTS OF NEW YORK STATE.
BUT...MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...IF ANY...MAY AWAIT
SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF COLD FRONT OUT OF ONTARIO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
..KERR.. 08/03/2007
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...
43297082 43007122 42917209 43687217 44637144 45147120
45727050 45606952 45576876 45246846 44786869 44376909
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