MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 AM CDT FRI AUG 03 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE HUDSON VALLEY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 031243Z - 031415Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   BY MID MORNING SHOULD ONGOING STORMS PERSIST.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.
   
   AS OF 1235Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT LINE OF
   STORMS FROM WRN FULTON COUNTY SWD INTO NERN OTSEGO COUNTY MOVING
   GENERALLY 255/20KT.  12Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATED AN ALREADY
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MUCAPE OF 2000-2300 J PER KG/ OWING TO
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES.  MODIFICATION OF THIS SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING STORMS
   SHOULD BECOME SURFACE BASED AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
   80S.  
   
   THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR OF AROUND 25 KT/...IT IS SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
   GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY LATER TODAY.  LARGE HAIL
   AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
   THREATS SHOULD ONGOING STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
   
   ..MEAD.. 08/03/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...
   
   42927470 43667446 43967402 44047338 43857299 43367276
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