MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SWRN MN AND SERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 011644Z - 011745Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS FROM CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO SERN SD...THOUGH COVERAGE IS
   EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW.
   
   A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO SWRN SD...WITH A 50-75
   MILE BAND OF CLOUDS LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.
   THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT... PRIMARILY NEAR
   THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE MORE DENSE CLOUDS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
   AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS HAVE AIDED IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
   80S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM
   1500-2500 J/KG. DESPITE THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WARM
   TEMPERATURES AROUND 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.
   ALSO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THOUGH VEERING
   WIND PROFILES SHOULD MAINTAIN  STORM UPDRAFTS. THE AMOUNT OF
   INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW  SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS...BUT THE
   WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT ISOLATED AND BRIEF.
   
   ..IMY.. 08/01/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   43029717 42869915 43940035 46499457 46359400 45249327
   43859531