MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1611
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 291838Z - 292030Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC AND TEXT
   
   ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF KS
   WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
   DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. A FEW CELLS MAY EXHIBIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE
   WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/HIGH WINDS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A
   WATCH.
   
   MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE/MCV APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG FRONTAL AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   SEGMENTS/BOUNDARIES SITUATED OVER CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON. VERY WARM
   AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WAS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING
   2000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OK AND SERN KS. THIS INSTABILITY WILL
   FEED INTO THE REGION OF STRONGER FORCED ASCENT AND SHOULD FUEL A FEW
   ROBUST STORM UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER
   MUCH OF THE REGION APPEARS LIMITED AND SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK STORM
   ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. HOWEVER...A COMPACT MID LEVEL WIND MAX
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV...COUPLED WITH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF
   BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS OVER MCPHERSON AND MARION COUNTIES...MAY
   PROVIDE MESO/STORM-SCALE ENHANCEMENT TO STORMS IN THIS AREA.
   ADDITIONALLY...LATEST LOW LEVEL CAPE AND SURFACE VORTICITY FIELDS
   INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO/LANDSPOUT ALONG
   THE FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING WSWWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS.
   
   GIVEN GENERALLY LOW PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED SEVERE AND LIMITED
   AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS POTENTIAL...A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/29/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...
   
   37339610 37529800 37579937 37639998 37870046 37990051
   38120002 38399933 38709870 39149808 39309753 39389694
   39319623 39099590 38709532 38399512 38039520 37769529
   37529562 37429589