MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0958 AM CDT SAT JUL 28 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CT...RI...MA...NH...ME
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 281458Z - 281600Z
   
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A
   WATCH...OR WATCHES...APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PARTS
   OF THE REGION WILL ALSO BE UPGRADED TO A SLGT RISK WITH THE NEXT
   SWODY1 ISSUANCE AT 1630Z.
   
   COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE NOW ACROSS ERN NY IS FORECAST TO
   LIFT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE TODAY. DPVA AND BAND OF
   30-50KT MID LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO
   AID DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACROSS A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS FROM CT NEWD TO ME. LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS AND BEST OPPORTUNITY
   FOR STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD EXIST FROM ERN
   CT/RI...ACROSS A NARROW SECTION OF ERN MA/SERN NH...AND THEN ACROSS
   MOST OF ME. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ALREADY EXISTS
   WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR AND ONGOING STORMS FROM SRN NH TO CT ARE
   ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
   
   CONTINUING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG SHEAR WILL PROMOTE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS /POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS/ AS CONVECTION
   REALIZES GREATER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND HIGH/DAMAGING WIND INCREASES...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH OR TWO WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/28/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
   
   41327126 41117264 40997363 44137149 45897096 47366938
   47426847 44796704 41707008