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Mesoscale Discussion 1593 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 270253Z - 270430Z
AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT SWD THROUGH SRN WI INTO NRN IL. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
RECENT REGIONAL RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND
TO ONGOING MCS. IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA
HAS COOLED INTO THE 70S WITH WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
STILL...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH NRN PORTIONS OF MN/WI COUPLED WITH BROAD
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN SYSTEM INTO PARTS OF IL LATER TONIGHT.
CURRENT MILWAUKEE AND CHICAGO VWPS INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR FOR MCS ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT DECREASING
LAPSE RATES AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ARE POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO
THE WEAKENING OF SYSTEM. NONETHELESS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE INTENSE STORMS
THAT CAN REGENERATE WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
..MEAD.. 07/27/2007
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...
43169107 43409051 43478942 43368859 43068782 42488772
42058786 41878861 41998938 42499055
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