MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0724 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL ND INTO N-CNTRL SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 260024Z - 260200Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
   SOME HAIL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.  A WW
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   A VERY HOT...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED TODAY OVER CNTRL SD
   WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 100-105F.  THESE TEMPERATURES COUPLED
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE RESULTING IN
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. 
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG COLD FRONT FROM
   ERN CORSON COUNTY SSWWD TO ERN ZIEBACH COUNTY IN SD OWING LARGELY TO
   THE INTENSE DIABATIC HEATING AND PERSISTENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. 
   RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RATHER DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER /UP TO
   700 MB/ WITH DCAPES OF 1500-1900 J/KG.  GIVEN THE STRONG EVAPORATIVE
   COOLING/DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS EXISTS WITH DEVELOPING STORMS.
   
   FARTHER TO THE N INTO S-CNTRL ND...PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CHARACTER
   CHANGES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
   60S TO LOWER 70S.  HERE TOO...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST
   WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.  IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
   /MLCAPES OF AROUND 3000 J/KG PER 00Z BIS SOUNDING/.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/26/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
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   45270006 44570066