MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1103 AM CDT SUN JUL 22 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S FL AND THE SRN HALF OF THE ERN FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 221603Z - 221730Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
   SRN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY ALONG DEVELOPING ERN
   SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE
   THAT A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF 2000-3000
   J PER KG/ HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE SRN PENINSULA WHERE 12Z MIA
   SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE TO VERTICAL THERMAL/MOISTURE
   STRATIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THAT
   SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA AND
   ESPECIALLY THE DEVELOPING ERN SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PERHAPS AS FAR N
   AS MLB.  
   
   THESE SOUNDING DATA AND CURRENT AREA VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL
   SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
   PENINSULA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AT LEAST TO SOME
   EXTENT.  STILL...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A THREAT OF SOME
   HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
   
   GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED MORE LIMITED AREAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A
   WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/22/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
   
   26398145 27028131 27728113 28358097 28468074 28448031
   26787980 25367999 24898055 25258084 25928124