MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN INTO E-CNTRL AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 211910Z - 212045Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST
   WITH INTENSIFYING STORMS ACROSS REGION.  THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
   REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NRN MOHAVE SEWD INTO SRN
   COCONINO TO FAR SRN APACHE COUNTIES IN AZ.  HERE...STRONG DIABATIC
   HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT...NAMELY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH RESULTANT MLCAPES OF
   1000-1500 J/KG.  OVER THE LOWER DESERTS OF SRN AZ...LINGERING CLOUDS
   HAVE LIMITED AIR MASS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SO FAR TODAY.
   
   STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG COMPLEX TERRAIN OR
   DRIFT WWD/SWWD BASED ON CURRENT FLAGSTAFF VWP WITH A THREAT OF SOME
   HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.  ANY SEVERE THREAT IN
   THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON DEGREE OF AIR MASS
   DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/21/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
   
   33821184 34771284 35661362 36441381 36891386 36941323
   35671189 34771091 34190981 33640930 33050965 33261080