MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...CENTRAL/ERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 191801Z - 192100Z
   
   CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE ERN
   SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO AND SERN WY
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
   RAINFALL...BUT ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST TSTMS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SERN CO INTO NWRN KS. NORTH OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...VERY RICH LOW LEVEL AIRMASS /DWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
   60S AND PWAT VALUES OVER 1.25 INCHES/ HAVE BEEN ADVECTED WWD INTO
   THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO AND SERN WY. RECENT PROFILER/VWP DATA FROM
   THE AREA INDICATE AROUND 3-4 KM DEEP OF ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
   FRONT RANGE/ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE
   UPSLOPE REGIME. RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS /INVOF OF THE UPPER
   HIGH/ WILL FURTHER SUPPORT SLOW STORM MOTIONS CAPABLE OF HEAVY
   RAINFALL RATES /IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/HR/. THE GREATEST HEAVY RAIN
   THREAT MAY EXIST OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE/FOOTHILLS FROM NEAR COS TO
   DEN ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY MCV /LOCATED NEAR COS/ THAT
   WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE FLOW AND GREATEST CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE IN THIS AREA. SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY OVER SERN CO MAY
   SUPPORT A FEW MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS...BUT GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD
   PRECLUDE GREATER ORGANIZATION AND NEED FOR A WW.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/19/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...
   
   37050522 38890595 40420640 42200657 42480599 42430514
   42240489 41200459 40160431 39600404 38480382 37510390
   37080435