MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL NEB/SCENTRAL SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 172144Z - 180015Z
   
   ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR
   WIND/HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE DEVELOPING EWD. A
   WW IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z...GIVEN LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL FORCING
   AND ORGANIZATION THROUGH THEN. A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING
   OVER FAR ERN SD.
   
   CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING ALONG SD/NEB BORDER...WHERE STRONG HEATING...DEEP MIXING
   WERE OCCURRING ALONG WITH MINIMAL CINH. GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND HIGH T/AD DEPRESSIONS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES
   FROM 1000-2000 J/KG/ SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST TSTMS. DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST INTO SERN SD...WHERE
   STRONGER INSTABILITY /BUT GREATER CINH EXISTS/ REMAINS HIGHLY
   CONDITIONAL. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER
   THIS EVENING WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...
   
   43739856 43700059 43490145 43100220 42880230 42750215
   42720181 42700079 42689975 42619853 42879771 43539800