MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0510 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 152210Z - 160015Z
   
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST
   CENTRAL MT. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES TOWERING CUMULUS/INCREASING CBS
   ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN/SOUTHWEST MT.
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO THE WEST
   CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL MT HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO A HOT AMBIENT
   AIRMASS...PRECIP WATER VALUES WERE NOTED TO BE 110-130 PERCENT OF
   NORMAL PER 12Z OBSERVED REGIONAL RAOBS...AND GPS-DERIVED DATA
   SUGGESTS A GRADUAL INCREASE SINCE THIS MORNING. WHILE OVERALL STORM
   MODE SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED...RELATIVELY STRONGER MID
   LEVEL FLOW WITH NORTH EXTENT ACROSS MT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
   SUSTENANCE/POSSIBLE MULTICELL CLUSTERS.
   
   IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS 
   STORMS...STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL MAY LIKELY INCREASE AS STORMS
   EVOLVE EASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING INTO THE WEST CENTRAL/NORTH
   CENTRAL MT HIGH PLAINS. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...A HOT/DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER RESIDES WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S/LOWER
   100S F. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
   THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH ISSUANCE...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..GUYER.. 07/15/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...
   
   48770814 47510831 45870968 45191087 45111302 46211380
   47421299 48861277 49081088