MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1017 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL PA THROUGH CNTRL AND E CNTRL NY THROUGH VT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 151517Z - 151615Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
   AS IT ADVANCES EWD. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. TRENDS
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   LATE THIS MORNING...CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING OVER SWRN NY ALONG
   COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN NY SWWD THROUGH NWRN PA INTO CNTRL
   OH. LACK OF LIGHTNING SUGGESTS CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY
   SHALLOW...AND RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION IN THE 600-500 MB
   LAYER IN THIS REGION. MOISTURE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE
   MORE LIMITED THAN FARTHER EAST WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY AROUND 60.
   THIS ALONG WITH THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY IN
   THIS REGION. HOWEVER...TRENDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY ARE NOW SHOWING
   CONSIDERABLE CLOUD BREAKS SUGGESTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WARM AND
   DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
   INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL OWING TO MODEST MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES. THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE PRESENCE
   OF STRONG 40 TO 50 KT SHEAR SUGGESTS THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS MAY
   BE SLOW. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND MAY INCREASE AS THE LINE ADVANCES EWD.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/15/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...CTP...
   
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