MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1465
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1029 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL AND CNTRL/WRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 130329Z - 130630Z
   
   THERE WILL BE A RISK OF REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
   REGION WITH HOURLY RATES OF 1-2 INCHES.  ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
   
   FOOTPRINT OF EARLY DAY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WAS STILL
   EVIDENT AS WEAK WIND SHIFT SITUATED FROM SERN OK NWWD TO JUST S OF
   KOKC TO THE EVOLVING MCS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE H85 FRONT WAS
   SITUATED FROM SWRN KS INTO ECNTRL OK WITH A DIURNALLY ENHANCED SSWLY
   LLJ INCREASING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  MID-LEVEL CONVECTION
   INCREASING IN THE ERN TX PNHDL AND SWRN OK WAS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
   THE WARM ADVECTION PROFILE ALONG THE NOSE OF THIS JET. 
   MEANWHILE...A COLD POOL WAS STRENGTHENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   HIGH PLAINS MCS WITH TSTMS BEGINNING TO EXPAND SEWD INTO EXTREME
   NWRN OK AND THE ERN TX PNHDL.
   
   THE LLJ WILL GENTLY VEER THROUGH ABOUT 09Z...MAXIMIZING THE
   WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM INTO WRN/CNTRL OK WITH
   TIME...COINCIDENT WITH THE SEWD MOVING MCS.  850 MB DEW POINTS IN
   EXCESS OF 15 DEG C WILL BE ADVECTING NWD FROM CNTRL TX...
   CONTRIBUTING THE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.  IN ADDITION... 
   THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS MERGERS AS STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD
   OF THE PRIMARY MCS...THEN BECOME ABSORBED AS THE COLD POOLS EXPAND
   SEWD.  WEAK SPEED SHEAR AND KINEMATIC SET-UP FEATURING A STRONGLY
   VEERING WIND PROFILE FROM ELY TO NWLY THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
   INCREASE THE RISK FOR BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS ATOP COLD
   POOLS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE COULD BE A COUPLE AXES OF
   HEAVY RAINFALL AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO AGREE.  THROUGH
   09Z...PRIMARY HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD EVOLVE FROM GAGE...WOODWARD AND
   ALVA SEWD TO WATONGA...ENID AND STILLWATER.  THIS REGION IS SITUATED
   BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW AND THE H85 FRONT.  ANOTHER AXIS MAY DEVELOP
   ACROSS FAR SW OK AND THE ECNTRL TX PNHDL ALONG/S OF I-40. 
   EVENTUALLY...THE ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL AND/OR MOVE SSEWD ACROSS
   CNTRL/WRN OK AFTER 09Z WITH A CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS TO NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH.  NWLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...ON THE ORDER OF 20-25
   KTS.  AT THE SAME TIME...NEAR SFC INFLOW WILL ALSO REMAIN ANEMIC AND
   IS NOT INDICATIVE OF A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE SCENARIO.  ISOLD WET
   MICROBURSTS WILL...HOWEVER...BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS
   DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OWING TO RATHER STRONG
   INSTABILITY AND EVIDENCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE 00Z OUN
   SOUNDING.  
   
   GIVEN THAT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST SVR
   RISK OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS ANTICIPATED...A
   SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT LIKELY.  IF STORMS BECOME SUSTAINED AND
   STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...A WW MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/13/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
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