MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1455
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0534 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 121034Z - 121300Z
   
   MATURE MCS CONTINUES DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK THIS
   MORNING. LATEST TRENDS AND OVERALL PATTERN SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL
   LIKELY PERSIST WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INTO PARTS
   OF CNTRL OK THROUGH DAYBREAK. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE AS OBSERVED WIND
   GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.
   
   CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS EVOLVED INTO WELL-FORMED MCS WITH ARC OF
   INTENSE CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL ACROSS 
   WOODWARD...WOODS...AND ALFALFA COUNTIES IN OK...AND A MESO HIGH
   ANALYZED NEAR PRATT KS. RECENT GUSTS ACROSS SCNTRL KS OF ABOUT
   45-50KT APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH MESOSCALE REAR INFLOW
   NOTCH...LIKELY A RESULT OF SYSTEM PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS. VERY MOIST
   AND CAPPED AIR MASS ORIENTED FAVORABLY NW-SE ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF
   THE MCS OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR
   CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH TO THE COLD POOL...AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY
   FEEDING INTO THE REGION OF STRONG MESOSCALE ASCENT...A WATCH WILL BE
   CONSIDERED AS SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL PERSISTS AND MOVES ACROSS PARTS
   OF NCNTRL AND CNTRL OK THIS MORNING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/12/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
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