MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0325 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 102025Z - 102230Z
   
   WEAK FRONTAL SURGE CONTINUES SWD THROUGH OK...WITH SURFACE TROUGH
   AXIS ALONG THE RED RIVER. DESPITE DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH...CONTINUED HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
   STORMS TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY INITIALLY OVER SERN OK BUT MOVING
   INTO NERN TX WITH SSELY STORM MOTIONS. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR
   ALREADY SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING AS OF 2030Z. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
   AND HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE ARE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH VEERING LOW
   LEVEL/WARM ADVECTION SHEAR PROFILES. THIS SUGGESTS SLOW MOVING
   STORMS WITH WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL...HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. A
   BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN LOCALIZED FAVORABLE SHEAR
   ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND HIGH QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/LOW
   LCLS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 07/10/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   32809660 33359735 34069785 34899724 35119634 34859558
   33769521 32889539