MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0303 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NY EWD INTO VT/NH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494...495...
   
   VALID 092003Z - 092200Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   494...495...CONTINUES.
   
   THROUGH 21-22Z...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS
   WW 495 ALONG AND S OF LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
   /EXTENDING FROM JHW TO SYR TO SLK/...AND GENERALLY W OF WARM FRONT
   /EXTENDING FROM E OF MSS SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE HUDSON VALLEY OF 
   GLF/. 
   
   TSTMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES SO FAR TODAY ACROSS WW
   495 AREA...PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
   IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SRN QB.  MORE
   RECENTLY...STORMS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ORGANIZE OVER ALLEGANY COUNTY NY
   ALONG LAKE BREEZE AS WELL AS OVER MONTGOMERY COUNTY NY NEAR
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WHICH HAS SET UP ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY.
   18Z ALB SOUNDING INDICATES THAT ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
   ALONG/JUST W OF THE HUDSON VALLEY GIVEN MLCAPES OF AROUND 2500
   J/KG...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KT AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250 
   M2/S2.  SHOULD STORMS BECOME SUSTAINED...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS REGION.  A LOCALLY GREATER
   SUPERCELL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE REMAINED BACKED...RESULTING IN STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
   
   OVER WW 494...LOW-LEVEL WAA TO THE NE OF WARM FRONT HAS SUPPORTED
   SOME BACKBUILDING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NH...ALONG
   ERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS.  WHILE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
   AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS...THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED.  ELSEWHERE...A
   CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS BECOME FOCUSED ALONG COLD FRONT ON THE WRN
   SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MORE RECENT DEVELOPMENT NOTED W OF MSS. 
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND WW 494 MAY HAVE TO BE
   EXTENDED SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
   WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE W.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/09/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...
   
   41967986 42407995 42807902 43387923 43527782 43407718
   43617639 44207640 45117499 45077166 45487126 45367096
   43427083 43277113 42867132 43077316 42387323 42317371
   41977397 41977456 41777517 41907559