MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1149 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 090449Z - 090545Z
   
   VEERED LLJ IS INCREASING/SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS LOWER MI INTO
   SRN ONTARIO AS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION.  THIS ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS MOSTLY
   RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS SRN ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS OF
   UPSTATE NY.  STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION CERTAINLY
   FAVORS ROTATING STORMS.  ONE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY
   TRACKED ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE ONTARIO
   WHERE INTENSITY HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THE LAST HALF HOUR.  THIS
   STORM...ALONG WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT...SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ALONG OLD
   FRONTAL ZONE WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR SUSTAINING
   UPDRAFTS.  WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW AS LOW
   LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES ACROSS UPSTATE NY.  HAIL AND
   POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 07/09/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
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