MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MN...NRN WI...WRN U.P. OF MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 081805Z - 081900Z
   
   TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INVOF SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED
   ACROSS CNTRL MN/NWRN WI AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IN CNTRL SD.
   THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   ISSUED BY 19Z.
   
   ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR STC ALONG A SLOW
   SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM SWRN MN TO THE NRN TWIN CITIES
   METRO ON INTO NWRN WI. LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IN CNTRL SD. THIS
   SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
   THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT LIKELY UNDERCUTS THE CONVECTION.
   LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY HAS
   DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITHIN AN AXIS OF
   LEGITIMATE LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. WITH AROUND 40 KTS OF
   MID-LEVEL FLOW /AS SAMPLED BY WOOD LAKE MN PROFILER/...DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 07/08/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   46728988 47008804 46448722 45758804 45189009 44909161
   44549419 44969476 45499464 45859402 46279200