MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 AM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491...
   
   VALID 081148Z - 081315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491
   CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE MCS WITH A RECORD OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL CONTINUES TO
   MAINTAIN INTEGRITY WHILE CROSSING NRN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
   EARLY TODAY. SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS
   MOVING INTO NRN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PARTS OF THIS
   REGION MAY BE ADDED TO ONGOING WATCH 491.
   
   SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS SPREAD EAST ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
   MORNING WITH ZONE OF INTENSE ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXTENDING SEWD FROM
   THE LOW...ACROSS THE U.P. OF MI AND INTO NRN LOWER MI. STRONGLY
   CAPPED HIGH INSTABILITY AIR MASS SITUATED ACROSS THE CNTRL
   PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY WAS BEING LIFTED ACROSS THIS FRONTAL ZONE AND
   SUSTAINING ACTIVE/INTENSE CONVECTION. WHILE THE TSTM COMPLEX APPEARS
   TO HAVE RECENTLY REACHED A PEAK WITH RESPECT TO COLD IR CLOUD TOPS
   AND LIGHTNING/VIL AND MESH TRENDS...SEVERAL OF THE STRONGER CORES
   OCCASIONALLY REGAIN INTENSITY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME UPSCALE GROWTH
   AND BOWING CHARACTERISTICS OF STORMS NOW CROSSING THE LAKE...LEND
   SOME SUPPORT FOR INCREASING WIND POTENTIAL AS THE COMPLEX MOVES INTO
   NRN LOWER MI SHORTLY. PARTS OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO
   WATCH 491...AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI ALSO
   REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/08/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...
   
   47048766 46668715 46758598 46738446 46468413 45788339
   45248337 45238441 45218510 45218556 44878606 44388635
   44318670 44678662 45308645 45578652 45408721 45058770
   45718783 46168764 46158817 47028796