MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CDT THU JUL 05 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NY INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 051910Z - 052015Z
   
   INTERESTING MESOSCALE SET-UP HAS EVOLVED THIS AFTN.  PRIMARY FOCUS
   FOR STG TSTMS HAS BEEN UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL NY WHERE STORMS FORMED
   ALONG A LAKE BREEZE AND ACROSS SRN PA ALONG A SUB-SYNOPTIC
   DISTURBANCE.  FARTHER E...IT APPEARS THAT A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   BOUNDARY AND/OR LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE HAVE BEEN IMPETUS FOR AN E-W BAND OF STG STORMS FROM NEAR
   KSWF/KPOU EWD INTO AREAS SW OF KHFD.  SATL ALSO SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
   TCU DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND...PRIMARILY
   ENHANCED BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES.
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN...BOTH AS A FUNCTION OF TERRAIN
   INDUCED STORMS AND APPROACHING STORMS FROM CNTRL NY.  THE
   REGION REMAINS WITHIN THE STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH 50-60
   KTS NOTED ABOVE 5 KM ON THE BGM VWP.  THIS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AND STORM ORGANIZATION.  PRIMARY SVR THREAT WILL BE DMGG WIND
   GUSTS ASSOCD WITH LEWPY MULTICELL STORMS.  A BRIEF SUPERCELL IS
   POSSIBLE...THOUGH LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE QUITE MEAGER.  WIND PROFILES
   THAT EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL TURNING IN THE TYPICAL N-S VLY
   ACROSS THE REGION MAY ALSO AUGMENT LOW-LEVEL SRH FOR A POSSIBLE
   BRIEF TORNADO.
   
   ..RACY.. 07/05/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
   
   41687438 42687440 42947453 43257266 43857054 43427050
   42577091 41907128 41607197 41437296 41317430