MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1389
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0741 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO/SERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485...
   
   VALID 050041Z - 050145Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485
   CONTINUES.
   
   LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW MCV NOW JUST NORTHEAST OF DDC. THE AIRMASS
   OVER MUCH OF SW KS HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EITHER
   FROM TODAY OR TUESDAY/S STORMS. NEW STORMS PUSHING INTO NW OK HAVE A
   LIMITED SEVERE THREAT...AS AIRMASS HAS NOT RECENTLY BEEN OVERTURNED
   AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 80S/90S.
   FARTHER EAST INTO WRN MO...STORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
   HOWEVER...00Z SOUNDING FROM SPRINGFIELD MO SHOWS VERY WEAK VERTICAL
   SHEAR...BUT OVER 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
   SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF ONGOING STORMS IN WRN MO IS LIMITED. BECAUSE
   SHEAR IS SO WEAK...STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND THUS HAVE A
   POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
   
   THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT FOR WW 485 APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SCNTRL
   KS...WHERE STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE GREATEST
   RISKS. A WIND GUST OF 56 KT WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT HUTCHINSON
   KS...AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SCNTRL KS HAVE OBSERVED HEAVY
   RAIN/FLASH FLOODING.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/05/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
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