MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1024 PM CDT TUE JUL 03 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB....NRN IA...SWRN WI...NWRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 479...481...
   
   VALID 040324Z - 040500Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 479...481...CONTINUES.
   
   WIDELY SPACED BUT LOCALLY INTENSE TSTMS PERSIST ALONG LOW LEVEL
   CONFLUENCE ZONE/WIND SHIFT SETTLING SEWD INTO WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS FROM THE MO RIVER VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY LATE THIS
   EVENING. WHILE SOME DOWNWARD TREND IN OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
   SHOULD ENSUE AS DIURNAL STABILIZATION SETS IN...POCKETS OF SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO....WILL PERSIST FOR AT
   LEAST ANOTHER HOUR.
   
   FROM WEST TO EAST...QUASI-DISCRETE CELLS PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF
   NERN NEB WHERE STRONG INHIBITION HAS LIKELY LIMITED GREATER
   CONVECTIVE VIGOR. NONETHELESS...LIFT ACROSS THE WIND SHIFT AXIS HAS
   BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STOUT UPDRAFTS GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG
   INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO
   BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...AND THIS THREAT MAY BE DIMINISHING.
   
   INTENSE CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEAR TO BE OUTFLOW DOMINANT NOW ACROSS
   CARROLL AND GREENE COUNTIES IN WRN IA. RECENT GUST TO 49KT AT
   CARROLL...AND RECENT TORNADO REPORT FROM CALHOUN COUNTY ATTESTS TO
   THE CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE
   THAT SOME WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY SPREAD OUT OF WATCH 479 IN THE NEXT
   HOUR. THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED BUT A NEW WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   BEING PLANNED.
   
   LASTLY...OUTFLOW/WIND SHIFT INTERSECTION AND STRONG COLD POOL NOW
   DEVELOPING OUT OF SWRN WI AND ACROSS NERN IA AND NWRN IL MAY BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO AND VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER
   THE NEXT HOUR. NUMEROUS LONG-LIVED CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN EMBEDDED
   WITHIN THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE MCS AND TAIL-END STORM...NOW ON
   BORDER BETWEEN CLAYTON COUNTY IA AND GRANT COUNTY WI APPEARS
   PARTICULARLY INTENSE. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SSEWD TOWARD
   DBQ AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...
   
   42219295 42229365 41879384 41859506 41529507 41519594
   41409599 41419713 41379765 41419827 42379829 42379733
   42279621 42439578 42529465 43149291 43039203 43149061
   42718877 42498883 42478946 42238949 41958969 41939017
   42049028 42089103 41949111 41869141 41869226 42249228