MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 PM CDT TUE JUL 03 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 031854Z - 032200Z
   
   HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY
   THIS AFTN...WITH HRLY RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH...
   
   LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST UPPER LOW IS NEAR
   JUNCTION TX...WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING JUST EAST OF ABI/DLF. GIVEN
   DAYTIME HEATING...AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG. WEAK SHEAR AND UNIDIRECTIONAL
   FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL FAVOR SLOW/STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF
   STORMS...AND SUPPORTS THE LIKLIHOOD THAT STORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE
   SAME LOCATION. ANY WEAK OUTFLOW/BOUNDARY GENERATED BY ONGOING STORMS
   OVER SAN SABA/LLANO COUNTIES WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND MAY PROVIDE
   ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR NEW STORMS. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS AN UPSLOPE
   COMPONENT RELATIVE TO THE ESCARPMENT...AND THIS MAY ALSO FAVOR
   CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT. OBSERVED PW VALUES ARE NEAR 2 INCHES
   WITH RICH LOW LEVEL AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   70S. HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY TO
   PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTN. GEORGETOWN TX /GTU/
   RECENTLY REPORTED 1.41 INCHES THROUGH 1755Z WITH ANOTHER 0.90 INCHES
   THROUGH 1835Z.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
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