MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0639 AM CDT TUE JUL 03 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NWRN/CENTRAL/NERN SD...EXTREME SERN
   ND...EXTREME W-CENTRAL/SWRN MN.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 031139Z - 031345Z
   
   WW 476 HAS BEEN EXTENDED LOCALLY TO COVER MORE OF CENTRAL/NERN
   SD...AND PORTIONS SD/MN FARTHER E AND SE WILL ME MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW AHEAD OF ONGOING MCS.
   
   PRIMARY GUST FRONT IS EVIDENT AT 1120Z FROM MEADE TO STANLEY TO NRN
   BROWN COUNTY SD...THEN NWD ACROSS PORTIONS BARNES/STEELE COUNTIES
   ND.  REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1363 FOR NOWCAST DETAILS ON MOST OF ND
   AREA.  STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED WITH SRN PORTION OF MCS SW
   ABR AND NW HON...WHICH RAISED GUSTS TO 48 KT AT MBG...AND ADDITIONAL
   TSTMS OVER ND/SD BORDER MAY MOVE SEWD WITH POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR
   GUSTS IN ABR-ATY CORRIDOR.  MUCAPES 1500-2500 J/KG ARE EVIDENT WITH
   WEAK CINH IN CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM SERN ND SEWD ACROSS NERN SD AND
   PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN MN...ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY SFC
   FRONTAL ZONE.  THAT APPEARS TO BE MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR
   CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ALONG/BEHIND GUST FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED
   REINFORCEMENT OF COLD POOL AND FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL INFLUENCES. 
   WEAK SFC-850 MB WINDS INDICATE STORM MOTION VECTOR WILL CLOSELY
   APPROXIMATE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW.
   
   FARTHER S...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCIN
   STRENGTHENING CONSIDERABLY WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS SD...EXCEEDING 250
   J/KG OVER PIR...MHE AND FSD AREAS.  WHILE FORCED ASCENT ATOP OUTFLOW
   MAY BE LOCALLY SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THAT MUCH
   INHIBITION...PROBABILITY OF SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED SVR EVENT WILL
   DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH MOST FAVORABLE AIR MASS REMAINING
   ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER AFOREMENTIONED AREA.  ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY N OF OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY...MOVING ESEWD FROM SERN MT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/03/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...UNR...
   
   45530393 44779855 45179765 46109711 46919695 46489579
   45309567 44379634 44059708 44219912 44730368