MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE AR...NE LA...WRN AND SRN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 021710Z - 021845Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH
   EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FROM SE AR INTO WRN/SRN MS.  THE STRONGEST
   STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH WET MICROBURSTS.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A WEAK
   SURFACE BOUNDARY/FRONT LIES NW-SE FROM ERN AR INTO SRN MS...WITH
   CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL MS CONTRIBUTING TO MAINTENANCE OF THE BOUNDARY
   THROUGH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
   WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 F THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SW OF
   THE BOUNDARY...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 70-72 F. 
   THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
   /MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG/.  GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT WITH
   RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL
   STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE
   WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING DO NOT APPEAR
   FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...BUT STORM COVERAGE MAY
   BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 07/02/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV...
   
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