MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1341
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 011953Z - 012100Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
   OF WESTERN AR.  SMALL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES ARE OF
   SOME CONCERN.  HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS TOO MINIMAL FOR A WATCH AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER OSAGE COUNTY OK...WITH WEAK
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LOW INTO HASKELL/LEFLORE
   COUNTIES OK...AND SCOTT/MONTGOMERY/GARLAND/HOT SPRINGS COUNTIES AR. 
   SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED TO EASTERLY ALONG AND NORTH OF BOUNDARY. 
   VAD PROFILES AT SRX AND LZK SHOW WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT A DEEP
   VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT.  THIS IS SIMILAR /ALBEIT WEAKER/
   TO THE WIND FIELDS PRESENT YESTERDAY OVER SOUTHWEST MO WHERE
   ISOLATED TORNADOES OCCURRED.  ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
   THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE PAST HOUR AND HAVE SHOWN WEAK MID LEVEL
   CIRCULATIONS.  OVERALL TORNADO THREAT IS PROBABLY RATHER LOW DUE TO
   WEAK WIND FIELDS.  HOWEVER...ENHANCED SHEAR/CONVERGENCE ALONG
   BOUNDARY AND INCREASING UNSTABLE AIR MASS /SBCAPE VALUES NOW EXCEED
   2500 J/KG/ SUGGEST A MARGINAL THREAT OF SMALL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   BRIEF SPIN-UPS AND GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ..HART.. 07/01/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
   
   35669376 35529282 35059213 34559235 34259325 34619400
   34979451 35329458 35609433