MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1326
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX...S-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN
   OK...SERN KS...SMALL PART OF W-CENTRAL/SWRN MO.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 300727Z - 301030Z
   
   HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY EXPAND/FILL NWD FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER
   WRN PORTIONS OF METROPLEX...NNEWD AND EVENTUALLY BLENDING/MERGING
   WITH PRE-EXISTING MCS OVER SERN KS.  1-1.5 INCH/HOUR RATES ARE
   LIKELY...LOCALLY 2-2.5 INCHES/HOUR IN HEAVIER CORES.  TRAINING OF
   PRECIP AREAS FROM SSW-NNE...PARALLEL TO AXIS OF THIS PLUME...WILL
   EXACERBATE RAINFALL HAZARD.  MEANWHILE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER
   PORTIONS SERN KS NEAR NOSE OF LLJ...SPREADING INTO MORE OF WRN MO
   FROM MKC AREA SWD.
   
   MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY AND COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOPS BETWEEN
   ICT-END...WITH CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS AND UPPER TROUGH SSWWD ACROSS ABI
   AREA.  SECONDARY/EMBEDDED VORTICITY LOBE IS EVIDENT IN FSI-SPS
   REGION.  WEAK SFC FRONT AND CORRESPONDING ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE UNDERLIE MID/UPPER TROUGH.  THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN
   QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS.  ROUGHLY 30-35 KT
   LLJ -- ALIGNED PARALLEL TO MID-UPPER TROUGH AND TO ITS W...SHOULD
   REMAIN FROM METROPLEX NNEWD OVER AREA BETWEEN OKC-TUL.  LLJ
   CORRESPONDS TO 850 MB CONFLUENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXES ALSO
   NOTED OVER REGION.  ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF VERY MOIST PARCELS TO LFC
   SHOULD CONTINUE AND EXTEND NWD ALONG AND JUST W OF LLJ AXIS THROUGH
   11Z...LEADING TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  MODIFIED RAOBS
   AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXTURE OF VERY PRECIP-EFFICIENT WARM
   CLOUD PROCESSES AND EMBEDDED TSTMS...SUPPORTED BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS
   14-15 G/KG...ROUGHLY 2 INCH PW AMD MUCAPE GENERALLY IN 500-1000 J/KG
   RANGE...WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/30/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...
   
   32489842 33549739 35029709 37249672 37799721 38349623
   38829446 38209385 37439398 36989460 36549527 33149669
   32299765 32239813