MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0249 PM CDT WED JUN 27 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH TX/SOUTHEAST OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 271949Z - 272145Z
   
   IN ADDITION TO A GRADUALLY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
   RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT...A THREAT MAY EXIST FOR AN
   ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX
   INTO SOUTHEAST OK. A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR/SURFACE ANALYSIS...PERSISTENT
   TROPICAL LOW REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AT MID AFTERNOON.
   WITH RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE...A SURFACE TROUGH/ZONE OF CONFLUENCE
   EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO A SURFACE LOW AND EVIDENT MCV SOUTHWEST OF THE
   WACO AREA. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS /LIKELY
   AIDED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV WITH SOUTH EXTENT/ RESIDE ON THE
   EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BROAD LOW. REGIONAL PROFILER DATA FROM
   DEQUEEN AR/PALESTINE TX AND WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM DALLAS-FORT WORTH
   AND FORT SMITH AR DEPICT UP TO 25-35 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTLY WINDS IN
   THE LOWEST 1-2 KM...WITH DERIVED 0-1 KM SRH UP TO 200
   M2/S2...ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED TO
   SOUTHEASTERLY. AS ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...THIS
   SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF/TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONES/POSSIBLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   OTHERWISE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
   THROUGH THE NIGHT VIA A MOISTURE-LADEN AIRMASS AND MODEST STORM
   MOTIONS. REGIONAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 2.0 INCHES
   PER 12Z OBSERVED RAOBS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/27/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...
   
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