MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX AND EXTREME S-CENTRAL OK.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 
   
   VALID 262144Z - 270015Z
   
   ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z...FROM
   ROUGHLY BAD-ACT LINE NNEWD ACROSS BULK OF DFW METROPLEX...TOWARD SRN
   OK VICINITY ADM/DUA.  RATES COMMONLY WILL ATTAIN 2-3
   INCHES/HOUR...LOCALLY HIGHER.
   
   MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE
   PRIMARY MID/UPPER CIRCULATION REMAINS OVER CENTRAL OK...HOWEVER
   SECONDARY VORTICITY LOBE/MAX IS EVIDENT ATTM OVER SPS AREA. 
   ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT/WEAK DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...ALONG
   WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND VERY HIGH THETAE IN INFLOW
   SECTOR...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASINGLY WELL ORGANIZED BAND OF
   TSTMS NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWATH BETWEEN EASTLAND-COOKE COUNTIES
   TX.  PRIND ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD OVER AREA N OF METROPLEX AND SEWD
   ELSEWHERE...EXPANDING/SHIFTING ACROSS MUCH OF N TX WITH VERY HEAVY
   RAINFALL RISK CONTINUING.  MODIFIED RAOBS...AVAILABLE GPS DATA AND
   RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW 2-2.25 INCH PW...MEAN MIXING RATIOS 16 G/KG...850
   MB DEW POINTS 15-16 DEG C...AND SFC DEW POINTS 70S F.  MLCAPES
   DURING NEXT FEW HOURS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER SOMEWHAT
   COOLER/MORE STABLE AIR IN AND N OF METROPLEX TO NEAR 3000 J/KG
   BETWEEN ACT-BAD WHERE STRONGER HEATING HAS OCCURRED.  WITH LITTLE OR
   NO CINH EVIDENT...THESE VALUES WILL SUPPORT FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL
   MAINTENANCE OF TSTM COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP HAZARD.  THREAT
   WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED WHERE ACTIVITY MERGES WITH FOREGOING/MORE
   DISCRETE TSTMS.  ADDITIONALLY...E-W CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVING NWD
   ACROSS RED RIVER...AROUND LAKE TEXOMA...WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR RAIN
   RATES OVER ADJACENT PORTIONS SRN OK...BUT FOR SHORTER PERIODS OF
   TIME GIVEN FASTER MOTION OF THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 06/26/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   32359899 32329829 32539775 33169729 33749714 34079732
   34299681 34299586 33419571 32579606 31849672 31619754
   31729843