MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0331 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT THROUGH WRN AND NRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449...
   
   VALID 250831Z - 251000Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449
   CONTINUES.
   
   THREAT FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED HAIL WILL EXIST NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH
   THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE ND-CANADA BORDER. OTHER STORMS MOVING
   EWD THROUGH WRN ND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
   HAIL. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST ACROSS ERN MT APPEARS
   UNLIKELY.
   
   A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN NWRN SD NEWD
   THROUGH CNTRL AND NERN ND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW
   INTO NERN WY. WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES BUT IS STRONGLY CAPPED TO SURFACE
   BASED STORMS. HOWEVER...A 50 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CNTRL
   DAKOTAS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
   FRONT TO BRING PARCELS TO THEIR LFC ACROSS NRN ND. THESE STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO SRN CANADA. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
   SHIFT EWD WITH TIME AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NERN MT EJECTS NEWD.
   AS THIS OCCURS...THE ZONE OF STRONGEST LIFT WILL ALSO SHIFT EWD
   THROUGH ND AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM THE WEST. 
   ERN MT APPEARS TO BE WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAKENING FORCING FOR ASCENT 
   BEHIND THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
   AXIS. SO SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED IN ERN MT. GIVEN
   THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN
   THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES ACROSS ND.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/25/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   48019994 47320261 48100356 49030213 49119872 48939733
   48629754