MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0927 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND NERN ND INTO FAR NWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445...
   
   VALID 230227Z - 230400Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445
   CONTINUES.
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NERN PORTION
   OF WW 445 THROUGH 04Z.
   
   AS OF 0210Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE MOST INTENSE
   STORM EXHIBITING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER MCHENRY COUNTY ND
   MOVING 320/15 KT.  MINOT AFB VWP APPEARS QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF
   PROXIMITY KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WITH VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
   THROUGH THE LOWEST 6-7 KM AGL...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KT
   AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2.  GIVEN THAT AIR MASS STILL IS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...EXPECT THIS
   STORM TO REMAIN CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS.
   
   ELSEWHERE...OTHER STORMS ARE ONGOING OVER NELSON AND WALSH COUNTIES
   IN NERN ND...AS WELL AS OVER FAR SERN MANITOBA.  RUC OBJECTIVE
   FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS SITUATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF
   THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER N-CNTRL ND.  WHILE ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
   STORMS AS THEY MOVE SEWD...THEY SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH TIME AS
   THEY MOVE INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..MEAD.. 06/23/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   48170072 48490097 48840066 48319935 48409845 48949782
   49029760 48999527 48679522 48459560 48239668 47949735
   47559799 47499896 47509975