MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN-ERN TX/NWRN LA/WRN AR/ERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 201521Z - 201615Z
   
   SURFACE HEATING ALONG SRN/ERN PERIPHERIES OF LARGE WANING SRN PLAINS
   CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM SRN
   TO ERN TX INTO NWRN LA AND NWD TO WRN AR/ERN OK...IS SUPPORTING AN
   ARCED AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.  TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND A WWD
   MOVING BOUNDARY ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS.  HOWEVER...
   OVERALL WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS OBSERVED BY AREA WSR-88D VADS/WIND
   PROFILERS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE
   LIMITED DURING THE SHORT TERM /THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING/.  
   
   THE GREATEST THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
   OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES PER HOUR /ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
   TX/...GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES /1.75-2.0 INCHES PER 12Z
   SOUNDINGS/ AND WEAK MEAN FLOW RESULTING IN SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/20/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
   
   36229421 35419369 33129270 31489316 29529613 28639733
   28309900 28340024 28730049 29300088 29570055 29739842
   30429731 31629676 32799558 33979508 34849531 35799599
   36319502