MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN OH TO NWRN-NRN PA INTO MUCH OF NY TO
   WRN VT AND NRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418...
   
   VALID 191903Z - 191930Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418
   CONTINUES.
   
   NEW WW NEEDED SOON TO THE EAST OF WW 418.
   
   COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
   MOVE EWD THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDED FROM LAKE HURON SWWD THROUGH
   WRN OH  TO SRN IND.  AIR MASS EAST OF THE FRONT AND ACROSS WW 418
   REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
   30-40 KT ACROSS OH INTO WRN PA/FAR WRN NY AS THESE LOCATIONS ARE
   CLOSER TO STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.  FARTHER
   DOWNSTREAM INTO ERN NY/HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...STRONG SURFACE HEATING
   /TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S/ WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
   /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/ HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/. 
   
   GIVEN THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD TO THE CANADIAN
   BORDER...ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO
   HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AS THIS ACTIVITY
   SPREADS EWD.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/19/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
   
   45117252 43457281 41277366 40697412 40527511 40877612
   40997662 40338041 39318358 40068379 40788385 41678254
   42907952 43337904 44247676 45097542