MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0639 AM CDT MON JUN 18 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN OK AND N CNTRL/NE TX
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 415...
   
   VALID 181139Z - 181315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 415 CONTINUES.
   
   THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT
   TRENDS IN AREAS MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF WW 415 WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
   
   A GENERAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS ONGOING NEAR A WEAKENING
   MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF
   THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION.  BROAD LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION EAST OF A CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...NOW ADVECTING
   INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...IS CONTRIBUTING TO DEVELOPMENT. 
   AND...STRONGEST FORCING NEAR MID-LEVEL LOBE OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY
   AND A LOW-LEVEL JET CORE REMAINS FOCUSED NEAR THE RED RIVER...NORTH
   OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.  LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   THAT THIS FORCING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR THE RED RIVER...TOWARD
   PARIS TX THROUGH THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY THE
   MOST VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  A 40+ KT SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY ANOTHER COUPLE OF
   HOURS...BEFORE DIURNAL WEAKENING TAKES PLACE BY MID MORNING.  UNTIL
   THEN...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN SIZABLE...AND SUPPORTIVE OF
   A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IN VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
   ENVIRONMENT.  OTHERWISE...WET MICROBURSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...IN
   ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOW MOVING STORMS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/18/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
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