MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 AM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ME...SRN NH...ERN MA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 171640Z - 171845Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF NRN ME
   SWWD INTO NRN NH...ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   EXTREME NRN ME WSWWD INTO SRN QUEBEC.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD
   COVER HAS SPREAD SEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WHICH IS INHIBITING
   STRONG HEATING FROM OCCURRING IN THE IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL
   ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AHEAD OF A FVE-LCI-CEF LINE HAS
   ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S-LOWER
   80S...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S ARE RESULTING
   IN MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   
   STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DEEP
   LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AOB 20 KT OVER THE INSTABILITY AXIS.  ALTHOUGH
   STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ESEWD ACROSS
   QUEBEC TOWARD NRN NEW ENGLAND...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGER
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO LAG BEHIND THE MORE FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WILL
   BE PRIMARILY PULSE TO MULTICELL WHICH WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
   THREAT.  HOWEVER...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIKELIHOOD
   OF FURTHER DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND
   GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH CURRENT ASSESSMENT INDICATES WW NOT LIKELY TO BE
   NEEDED WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..WEISS.. 06/17/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...
   
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