MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1163
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN NY...CENTRAL/ERN PA...NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 161750Z - 161945Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND/ERN NY
   SWD INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NERN PA INTO EXTREME NWRN NJ.  ACTIVITY IS
   FORMING ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
   COAST...WITHIN RUC ANALYZED MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /500 MB
   TEMPERATURES AROUND -15C/ THAT IS ROTATING WWD ACROSS THE HUDSON
   RIVER VALLEY.  STRONG DIURNAL INSOLATION HAS WARMED SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80F STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY IN THE
   LOWEST 3 KM AGL AND RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  PRIMARY
   LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT
   AND RESULTANT WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL
   RESULT IN MINIMAL TILT TO UPDRAFTS AND INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF PULSE
   STORMS.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CELLS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL AND/OR BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT OVERALL THREAT
   APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO ISSUE A WW.
   
   ..WEISS.. 06/16/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   40677801 41417746 42167584 43457445 43837408 44197304
   44207245 41997256 40997325 39857410 39797595 40207772