MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1161
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND THE LWR RIO GRANDE VALLEY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398...
   
   VALID 160638Z - 160745Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398
   CONTINUES.
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITION WW
   ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
   
   SMALL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS
   SURGED SOUTH OF JUNCTION...AND ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD AT UP TO
   35-40 KTS.  AS STORMS APPROACH THE HONDO/SAN ANTONIO AREA DURING THE
   07-08Z TIME FRAME...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THEY WILL
   ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR IN THE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW LAYER...WHICH MAY
   RESULT IN WEAKENING TRENDS.  THE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR STRONGEST NEW
   UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN LOW-LEVEL MOIST
   TONGUE...TOWARD THE LAREDO AREA...WHERE INHIBITION IS WEAKER NEAR
   THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...THAN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG
   BEND/DEL RIO AREAS.  AND...WITH MIXED LAYER/MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN
   EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG...SHEAR BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
   LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/16/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
   
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