MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0427 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 142127Z - 150000Z
   
   ISOLATED TSTM OVER FAR NWRN ND MAY BEGIN TO POSE A SVR THREAT IN THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO WHILE IT MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. ADDITIONAL
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WRN ND
   IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ALONG ANOTHER BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL ND.
   ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   TSTMS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AREA BY 00Z.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ISOLATED TSTM OVER BURKE COUNTY. THIS
   STORM HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW-NE ACROSS
   FAR WRN ND. RECENT VWP DATA FROM MINOT INDICATED 40 KTS AT 500
   MB...WHICH WAS SUPPORTING 35-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER WRN ND.
   RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATED AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE...AS
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. A STRONG UPPER
   TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AND
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FAR WRN ND
   IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEGREE OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT AT
   LEAST ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   TSTMS. FURTHER EAST...INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION...WEAKENING CINH
   AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GENERATED BOUNDARIES
   OVER CENTRAL ND /FROM NEAR BIS TO NEAR DVL/ MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL ND TOWARDS 00Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 06/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   48990289 46690386 46320326 46580192 46419925 48979762