MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN ND/FAR NERN SD AND NWRN/WEST CENTRAL
   MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 141859Z - 142000Z
   
   WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SERN ND AND NWRN/
   WEST CENTRAL MN.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED THINNING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE ERN
   DAKOTAS AND WRN MN THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR MORE SURFACE HEATING
   AND SUBSEQUENT DECREASING INHIBITION FOR CU FORMATION.  REGIONAL
   RADARS SHOWED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER FAR SERN ND/ERN SD INTO FAR
   WRN MN ALONG WEAK ZONES OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...AND JUST
   DOWNSTREAM OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MOVING SLOWLY NNEWD
   OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NERN SD AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
   RATHER WEAK /MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG/ GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS /SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S/ SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE
   INSTABILITY.  IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRONGER
   0-3 KM MLCAPE /UP TO 100-125 J/KG/ FROM NERN SD/SERN ND INTO
   ADJACENT PARTS OF MN.  SURFACE VORTICITY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IS ALSO
   STRONG WHICH WOULD TEND TO PROMOTE A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL
   STORM ROTATION.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   45489707 45639793 46019866 47329747 48019649 47999516
   47279475 45509589