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Mesoscale Discussion 1137 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS...WRN/CENTRAL OK AND THE ERN OK/TX
PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394...
VALID 132210Z - 140015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394
CONTINUES.
CLUSTER OF STG-SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS
MUCH OF WRN OK...SWRN KS AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE MAIN SVR
THREATS WILL REMAIN LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
OVER NWRN OK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
CLARK COUNTY KS SEWD TO NEAR WATONGA TO JUST WEST OF OKC. ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL SHEAR WAS MAXIMIZED WITH 0-1 KM SRH
AROUND 100 M2/S2...SUPPORTED BY ELY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH NOTED ON
RECENT OKLAHOMA MESONET SITES. IN ADDITION...0-3 KM CAPE WAS AROUND
150 J/KG WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL STRETCHING/ IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS BOUNDARY. THUS DESPITE RELATIVELY MARGINAL MID LEVEL
WINDS...ANY SUPERCELL THAT MOVES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. SOUTH OF THE
SUPERCELL IN MAJOR COUNTY...OTHER SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP SEWD ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OK GIVEN WEAK CINH AND RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS. FURTHER WEST...SEVERAL SVR TSTMS CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE AND WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL/DMGG WINDS ACROSS FAR WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE. LOWER DWPTS
/LOW-MID 60S/ AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY AND CONSEQUENT HIGHER LCL
HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT. OVER SWRN KS NUMEROUS TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT...WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OF NEW DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WHERE LITTLE CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING HAS OCCURRED IN THE FAR NRN PORTIONS OF WW 394.
..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2007
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...
34700031 34429998 34409957 34459832 34629717 35289704
36939760 37149845 38199860 38310116 38080175 37190116
36410047
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