MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1054 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NY/CENTRAL AND WRN PA/ERN OH/NRN WV/WRN MD
   PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 131554Z - 131700Z
   
   WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SWRN NY THROUGH CENTRAL/WRN
   PA INTO ERN OH/NRN WV AND THE WRN MD PANHANDLE.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
   SSWWD ACROSS WRN NY/LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WITH AN AREA OF
   TSTMS TRACKING SWD THROUGH WRN NY /S OF LAKE ONTARIO/ AT THIS TIME
   PER REGIONAL RADARS.  AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY
   REGION IS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING
   WITH MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG.  THIS
   HEATING WILL ALSO FURTHER WEAKEN THE INHIBITION FOR ADDITIONAL
   CU/TCU AND TSTM FORMATION AS IS ALREADY OCCURRING IN SWRN NY
   /STEUBEN COUNTY/.  GREATEST SEVERE THREAT MAY BE FOCUSED WITH ASCENT
   AHEAD OF THE MORE COMPACT CIRCULATION CENTER...15 W ROC..AS THIS
   FEATURE TRACKS SSWWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  DEEP
   NELY WINDS WITH MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW AT 25-30 KT SHOULD RESULT IN
   20-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. 
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ALSO RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
   HAIL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 06/13/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
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