MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0913 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS...ERN MT...NE WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381...
   
   VALID 120213Z - 120345Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381
   CONTINUES.
   
   A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT 04Z...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER
   TONIGHT.
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WARM...MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE STILL IN EXCESS
   OF 3000 J/KG.  AND...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO
   SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.  HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL
   CAPPING REMAINS QUITE STRONG...WITH LEADING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW LIFTING THROUGH
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.  STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING
   ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT IMPULSE IS JUST NOW SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
   MONTANA/EASTERN IDAHO...AND MAY NOT BE OF ANY INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
   WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.  THUS...AS SURFACE FRONT
   SLOWLY ADVANCES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
   DAKOTA...RISK FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LOW THROUGH AT LEAST 06-07Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/12/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
   
   48889934 48099944 46780059 46480202 46880298 47440290
   48470167 49000156