MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1064
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CDT FRI JUN 08 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TX AND NORTHERN LA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 081912Z - 082145Z
   
   STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
   NORTHERN LA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TX THROUGH MID/LATE
   AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   THE STRONGEST STORMS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CONCERNS EXIST
   REGARDING THE EXPECTED COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION OF THE SEVERE THREAT.
   
   COMBINATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
   FEATURES SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
   EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AR AND CENTRAL/EASTERN TX. THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
   FRONTAL FORCING/WEAKENING INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO GIVE RISE TO
   INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
   ALTHOUGH LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING AND/OR A RESIDUAL WARM LAYER
   ALOFT BETWEEN 700-850 MB MAY TEMPER CONVECTIVE VIGOR/RAPIDITY OF
   DEVELOPMENT /PER SPECIAL 18Z DEL RIO TX AND 12Z SHREVEPORT LA
   RAOBS/...MODIFIED OBSERVED/RUC SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF MLCAPE
   VALUES AS HIGH AS 3000-3500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY EXISTS...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
   WILL BE WEAK WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE AS SEEN IN
   REGIONAL PROFILER/WSR-88D VWP DATA. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS NOT
   IMMINENT...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/08/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
   
   30589877 31399782 32149622 33209439 33189263 32929127
   32289142 31529202 31079371 30639511 29579839