MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS/ERN AND CNTRL OK/FAR NCNTRL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 072027Z - 072200Z
   
   RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SHALLOW CU SLOWLY INCREASING IN
   COVERAGE AND VERTICAL EXTENT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE
   OVER SERN KS TO FAR NCNTRL TX. ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
   AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER
   90S WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OBJECTIVE
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG IN SERN KS TO
   6000 J/KG NEAR THE RED RIVER.
   
   CAP HAS STEADILY DECREASED THROUGH THE DAY PER COOLING OBSERVED IN
   THE 700 TO 850 MB LAYER ON 18 UTC OUN RAOB. MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
   REMAIN WARM /-6C 500 MB/ AND MAY INITIALLY DELAY ONSET OF DEEP
   CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO OVERCOME WARM MIDLEVELS. SURFACE WINDS
   HAVE MAINTAINED A WEST..SOUTHWEST COMPONENT...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   IS PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR SPITING SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   DESPITE THE LESS THAN IDEAL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...CONVECTION IS 
   LIKELY TO INITIATE ALONG/EAST OF DRYLINE BEFORE BY 00 UTC. THE AREA
   IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.
   
   ..BRIGHT.. 06/07/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...
   
   36949663 37529634 37809611 38049553 37899411 37159398
   36379455 35229511 34659538 33409588 33349739 33539817
   35159742 36359687