MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 AM CDT WED JUN 06 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE THROUGH NRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 061644Z - 061845Z
   
   A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NRN FL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. THE
   STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND. A WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO
   POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE FROM THE FL
   PANHANDLE THROUGH NRN FL WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ALONG
   WITH 7.5 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
   WEAK E-W ORIENTED CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN FL...AND A FEW
   SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FEATURE. THE SEA BREEZE
   CIRCULATION WAS BECOMING EVIDENT FARTHER N NEAR COASTAL AREAS OF THE
   FL PANHANDLE. THE 12Z RAOB DATA FROM TALLAHASSEE AND JACKSON FL
   SHOWED MODERATE TO STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND 35 TO 40 KT
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. UPPER FLOW HAS SINCE BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
   AS ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NEWD WITH HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE
   OVER NRN FL. WV IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL DRYING
   OVER THE SERN STATES...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE
   SUBSIDENCE...SPREADING SEWD TOWARD NRN FL. THE WEAKENING MID-UPPER
   LEVEL FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY
   SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT.
   HOWEVER...GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN
   PLACE...STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/06/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   30548635 30868633 31008587 30858337 30558174 30008139
   29398124 29078188 29178267 29598319 30208388 30108457
   29968500 30448605