MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...VT...NH...MA...CT...RI...WRN MAINE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 051530Z - 051730Z
   
   STORMS MAY INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH NY AND NEW ENGLAND
   NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   WW.
   
   SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OR WEAK
   COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN NY...WHILE OTHER SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING
   FARTHER EAST OVER WRN PORTIONS OF VT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM
   SECTOR TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...MLCAPE WILL LIKELY APPROACH 1500 J/KG THIS
   AFTERNOON. A PRONOUNCED VORT MAX NOW OVER ERN PA WILL LIFT NEWD
   THROUGH NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. ASCENT ATTENDING THIS
   FEATURE ALONG WITH WEAK CAP WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON.
   LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
   MOSTLY MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG
   SRN PERIPHERY OF EJECTING VORT MAX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 35-40 KT OF
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP MID LEVEL
   ROTATION...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.
   
   OTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM ALONG PRIMARY FRONT FROM WRN
   NY SWD THROUGH NWRN PA. HOWEVER...MODEST INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
   WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS AS WELL AS WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR
   SUGGEST THREAT IN THIS REGION MAY BE MORE LIMITED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/05/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
   
   44917191 45157053 44186972 43417050 42027120 41577279
   41777402 42567415 43677408 44827366