MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0712 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 040012Z - 040115Z
   
   SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   MEXICO AND SWD/SEWD OFF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO PARTS OF SCNTRL TX
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY RESIDES ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING BENEATH RELATIVELY MODEST CAPPING.
   WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION WAS ONGOING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF
   CONCERN...ALONG A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
   MORNING MCS THAT TRACKED ACROSS NRN AND ERN TX. OTHER
   INTENSE/SUPERCELLULAR STORMS ARE TRACKING GRADUALLY EAST OFF THE
   SIERRA DEL HUACHA.
   
   LIFT WITH A WEAK SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY CROSSING NRN MEXICO AND THE BIG BEND REGION MAY AID IN 
   WEAKENING THE CAP AND SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OF
   ONGOING COMPLEX ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
   INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION...AS
   WELL AS MORE THAN ADEQUATE WLY FLOW TO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN...SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   MAY CONVERGE ON PARTS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. WHILE ISOLATED
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CAP
   STRENGTH MAY LIMIT GREATER POTENTIAL.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 06/04/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   29730172 30360175 30229961 28929741 28399767 28260022
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