MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...NRN IA...WRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 021811Z - 021945Z
   
   A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MN..WRN WI AND NRN
   IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGER CELLS SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL
   FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS
   ALSO POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER SW MN WITH A COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN IA. EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 F. THE RUC
   ANALYZES A POCKET OF STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER SE MN AND NRN IA WITH
   SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS INSTABILITY MAX THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS
   SPREADING NEWD INTO THE MINNEAPOLIS MN AREA. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER FAR ERN SD AND A BAND OF
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL IA...SE MN AND WRN
   WI. THIS FEATURE IS CREATING MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS
   MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR EVIDENT ON WSR-88D VWPS WHICH SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. A POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS NEAR
   THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
   ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS
   THE ERN PART OF THE MCD AREA WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGER AND
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/02/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
   42839236 42749391 43549454 44549451 45229521 45769446
   45879387 45619301 45279217 45019142 44569088 43879086
   43289129