MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0950
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL NM...NWRN TX...FAR SWRN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 011845Z - 011945Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY
   WEST-EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERALLY ALONG THE RED RIVER
   CORRIDOR. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG
   AND JUST N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREAT INITIALLY. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY PLACES THE
   MAIN WEST TO EAST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERALLY FROM TCC TO 25
   S AMA TO FSI...WITH MORE SUBTLE GRAVITY WAVES/CONFLUENT BANDS
   LOCATED FARTHER S. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE HAS
   GENERALLY REMAINED ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN AS THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES HAVE INDICATED AT LEAST
   MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
   WITH WEAKENING INHIBITION. THUS...SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL
   WINDS /20 TO 30 KTS AT 6 KM PER REGIONAL VAD PROFILERS/...FAVORABLE
   VEERING WILL MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS.
   THUS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE-HAIL THE MAIN THREAT
   OWING TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   
   LATEST RUC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH 12Z MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE S PLAINS
   TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. THIS SHOULD TEND TO MITIGATE THE OVERALL
   TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH STORMS LIKELY REMAINING TIED INVOF
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY PROVE TO
   BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES...PRIOR TO THE OUTFLOW/COLD POOL
   UNDERCUTTING STORMS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/01/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   34999838 34259780 33519797 33089889 33060054 33280214
   33610353 34370401 35130384 35460291 35310108 35249987